April primary prediction update

Wisconsin and Wyoming have voted. Let’s look at my previous predictions to see how they fared.

State Old Prediction
Wisconsin 61
Wyoming 79.9
New York 41.5
Connecticut 40.7
Delaware 18.7
Maryland 32.4
Pennsylvania 47.6
Rhode Island 55.2

Wisconsin came out 56.6% and Wyoming 55.7%. I’m willing to speculate that the outcome in Wisconsin was affected by voter ID laws. As for Wyoming, it appears Clinton actually waged a very organized mail-in ballot campaign. Caucus attendees overwhelmingly favored Sanders and might have come much closer to that 79.9% prediction. I would also speculate that it’s possible the present-day demographics in Wyoming are different from the demographics in my data. It would be interesting to see if there has been an exodus of younger people from the state into Colorado since they legalized marijuana in 2014.

With these two additional data points and an updated Google search volume predictor I give you the new predictions!

State Prediction
New York 46.5
Connecticut 42.1
Delaware 18.7
Maryland 29.7
Pennsylvania 43.7
Rhode Island 55.1

Since the last two outcomes were lower than their old predictions, the increased prediction for New York is probably due to search volume. And in fact, if Bernie wins this much in New York it should be considered an upset–a single digit margin, less than half the 17% margin Obama lost New York by in 2008.

Unfortunately, if my predictions are accurate for all future contests it puts Bernie on track to win only about ~1845 delegates. This is significantly lower than the 1923 that I had earlier on before Arizona. It remains to be seen how much Bernie’s volunteer army can push these numbers higher.

A small consolation here is that Bernie will easily prevent Hillary from winning the nomination in pledged delegates only. That means his political revolution will certainly go to the Democratic Convention whether or not he comes out of it the nominee. Even that is an outcome nobody would have believed remotely possible mere months ago.

Finally, this isn’t a prediction, but I’m including a little “delegate math” calculation here just to try to counter the overwhelming prevalence of the completely incorrect versions appearing in most of the mainstream media. Right now, Bernie needs to win about 56.5% of the remaining pledged delegates to have a majority. If he wins 46% in New York, then he’ll need just under 58.4% of the delegates after that.

Projected Remaining To Win Needed Percent
1209.62 1400 2026 816.38 58.4%

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