April 26th primary prediction update

New York was very surprising. I really hope they do some serious auditing and decide to count the affidavit ballots that people whose registrations were mysteriously changed had been forced to use. At any rate, with updated data here are new predictions for tomorrow.

Connecticut 40.7
Delaware 18.4
Maryland 30.2
Pennsylvania 42.4
Rhode Island 53.1

The Pennsylvania prediction is only about one percent higher than the latest polls there. Connecticut’s latest polls are actually several points higher than 40%. Maryland is a big question mark, with some polls matching 30% and some showing 40% or higher. It will be especially interesting to see if felons whose voting rights were recently re-enfranchised participate and how they vote. Polls in Rhode Island show about 45%, so my prediction is significantly higher. The extremely low prediction for Delaware is apparently being heavily influenced by the large part finance plays in its economy.

If Pennsylvania and Maryland outperform these predictions then tomorrow could be a decent day for Sanders. If they underperform, calls for him to drop out before California will intensify. He shouldn’t, and hopefully won’t. He should still do very well here in CA, and even if he doesn’t get a majority of pledged delegates he may still come close enough yet to have more influence at the convention.

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One thought on “April 26th primary prediction update

  1. k kdelk says:

    18.4?

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