Monthly Archives: June 2016

Final primary predictions: Sanders to win CA

First, let’s see the performance of my most recent predictions.

Region Predicted Actual Error
New York 46.5 43.7 2.8
Connecticut 40.7 49.1 -8.4
Delaware 18.4 39.2 -20.8
Maryland 30.2 36.8 -6.6
Pennsylvania 42.4 43.5 -1.1
Rhode Island 53.1 54.2 -1.1

The demographic model was fairly consistent in underestimating Sanders, with the exception of New York. None of this surprises me. Here are my predictions for the remaining races:

Region % Bernie
Puerto Rico 20.7
California 50.3
Montana 72.7
New Jersey 40.2
New Mexico 46.3
North Dakota 70.6
South Dakota 62.6
D.C. 3.9

Puerto Rico and D.C. are probably underestimating by a lot, like Delaware. The rest seem pretty reasonable to me. South Dakota might be a bit more like Wyoming and come in the upper 50s instead of lower 60s (advance registration deadline). New Mexico might be more like Arizona in the lower 40s rather than upper 40s. New Jersey might be a few points higher.

To win the majority of pledged delegates Sanders would need to take 78.7% of the remaining. Unfortunately, instead of ending with the desired numer, 2026, of pledged delegates, these predictions show Bernie ending with about 1860. That’s about 45.9% of all the pledged delegates. And for the purpose of context, here’s a comparison to other recent progressive Democrats in similar primary years.

Year Candidate % of delegates
2000 Bill Bradley 21
2004 Howard Dean 5.6
2004 John Edwards 19.4
2016 Bernard Sanders 45.9

Bernie’s (projected) share is almost exactly as much as the previous three combined. It’s clear we’re entering a new era of politics in America. I can only hope it happens quickly enough to address the problems of political corruption, climate change, extreme inequality (in its many forms–e.g. education and not just income), healthcare for all, and the many other urgent problems affecting vulnerable Americans.