First, let’s see the performance of my most recent predictions.
The demographic model was fairly consistent in underestimating Sanders, with the exception of New York. None of this surprises me. Here are my predictions for the remaining races:
Puerto Rico and D.C. are probably underestimating by a lot, like Delaware. The rest seem pretty reasonable to me. South Dakota might be a bit more like Wyoming and come in the upper 50s instead of lower 60s (advance registration deadline). New Mexico might be more like Arizona in the lower 40s rather than upper 40s. New Jersey might be a few points higher.
To win the majority of pledged delegates Sanders would need to take 78.7% of the remaining. Unfortunately, instead of ending with the desired numer, 2026, of pledged delegates, these predictions show Bernie ending with about 1860. That’s about 45.9% of all the pledged delegates. And for the purpose of context, here’s a comparison to other recent progressive Democrats in similar primary years.
|Year||Candidate||% of delegates|
Bernie’s (projected) share is almost exactly as much as the previous three combined. It’s clear we’re entering a new era of politics in America. I can only hope it happens quickly enough to address the problems of political corruption, climate change, extreme inequality (in its many forms–e.g. education and not just income), healthcare for all, and the many other urgent problems affecting vulnerable Americans.